← Matchups

North Carolina Central

· 2-1 · power -11.9 · #318
Our numberNORF -4.5 no book has priced this game

Norfolk State

· 1-2 · power -9.5 · #291
Our side
MoneylineNORF to win ours 61%
Projected score 27–32 NCCU – NORF
2026-11-07 · 12:00 PM William "Dick" Price Stadium · Norfolk, VA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series North Carolina Central lead 10–2 · 12 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Norfolk State Spartans 53 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #189 rush offense Norfolk State Spartans #136 run defense
Pass game edge North Carolina Central Eagles 142 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #43 pass offense Norfolk State Spartans #185 pass defense
Run game edge Norfolk State Spartans 50 ranks
Norfolk State Spartans #95 rush offense North Carolina Central Eagles #145 run defense
Pass game edge North Carolina Central Eagles 61 ranks
Norfolk State Spartans #164 pass offense North Carolina Central Eagles #103 pass defense
North Carolina Central Eagles Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Norfolk State Spartans Balanced · 48% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Central Eagles
DL Zarion Walters 17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL #12 DL
DB Joshua Truesdale 19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #88 DB
RB Plez Lawrence 264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #92 RB
DB Jakarri Martin II 9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #231 DB
Norfolk State Spartans
DB Josiah Davis 6 tkl · 2 INT #61 DB
DB Jordan Saunders 20 tkl · 1 INT #121 DB
LB Brendan Thompson 23 tkl · 2.0 TFL #141 LB
DL Eugene Allen IV 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #330 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Carolina Central Eagles -11.9 -5.0 -6.9 #318
Norfolk State Spartans -9.5 -3.3 -6.2 #291

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Carolina Central offense vs Norfolk State defense+1.2 pts
Norfolk State offense vs North Carolina Central defense+3.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+5.3

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).