Our side
MoneylineNORF to win
ours 61%
Projected score
27–32
NCCU – NORF
2026-11-07 · 12:00 PM
William "Dick" Price Stadium · Norfolk, VA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
North Carolina Central lead
10–2
· 12 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Norfolk State Spartans
53 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #189 rush offense
Norfolk State Spartans #136 run defense
Pass game
edge North Carolina Central Eagles
142 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #43 pass offense
Norfolk State Spartans #185 pass defense
Run game
edge Norfolk State Spartans
50 ranks
Norfolk State Spartans #95 rush offense
North Carolina Central Eagles #145 run defense
Pass game
edge North Carolina Central Eagles
61 ranks
Norfolk State Spartans #164 pass offense
North Carolina Central Eagles #103 pass defense
North Carolina Central Eagles
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Norfolk State Spartans
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Central Eagles
DL
Zarion Walters
17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL
#12 DL
DB
Joshua Truesdale
19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#88 DB
RB
Plez Lawrence
264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#92 RB
DB
Jakarri Martin II
9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#231 DB
Norfolk State Spartans
DB
Josiah Davis
6 tkl · 2 INT
#61 DB
DB
Jordan Saunders
20 tkl · 1 INT
#121 DB
LB
Brendan Thompson
23 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#141 LB
DL
Eugene Allen IV
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#330 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Carolina Central offense vs Norfolk State defense+1.2 pts
Norfolk State offense vs North Carolina Central defense+3.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+5.3
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).