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Mercyhurst

· 0-3 · power -16.3 · #357
Our numberRMU -11.8 no book has priced this game

Robert Morris

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -9.0 · #282
Our side
MoneylineRMU to win ours 77%
Projected score 19–31 MERC – RMU
2026-10-24 · 2:00 PM Joe Walton Stadium · Moon Township, PA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Mercyhurst and Robert Morris split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Robert Morris Colonials 59 ranks
Mercyhurst Lakers #220 rush offense Robert Morris Colonials #161 run defense
Pass game edge Robert Morris Colonials 96 ranks
Mercyhurst Lakers #190 pass offense Robert Morris Colonials #94 pass defense
Run game edge Mercyhurst Lakers 48 ranks
Robert Morris Colonials #260 rush offense Mercyhurst Lakers #212 run defense
Pass game edge Mercyhurst Lakers 77 ranks
Robert Morris Colonials #220 pass offense Mercyhurst Lakers #143 pass defense
Mercyhurst Lakers Balanced · 47% run Ball-control Robert Morris Colonials Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Mercyhurst Lakers
DL Zacchaeus Dixon 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #135 DL
DB Braylon Beckwith 21 tkl #182 DB
TE Camden Lewis 10 rec · 83 yds · 1 TD #44 TE
P Thomas O'Neill 19 punts · 43.3 yd avg #24 P
Robert Morris Colonials
WR Galen Combs 15 rec · 307 yds · 5 TD #10 WR
DL Asher Wilson 14 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL #30 DL
LB Amanuel Dickson 23 tkl · 3.5 TFL #40 LB
DL David Johnson 5 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.0 TFL #362 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Mercyhurst Lakers -16.3 -8.4 -7.9 #357
Robert Morris Colonials -9.0 -9.9 +0.9 #282

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Mercyhurst offense vs Robert Morris defense-9.4 pts
Robert Morris offense vs Mercyhurst defense-2.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.5

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).