← Matchups

North Dakota

· 3-0 · power +12.7 · #70
Our numberUND -2.9 no book has priced this game

South Dakota

· 3-0 · power +9.5 · #88
Our side
MoneylineUND to win ours 43%
Projected score 34–31 UND – SDAK
2026-10-24 · 2:00 PM The DakotaDome · Vermillion, SD Conference game Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series South Dakota lead 6–5 · 11 meetings since 2009
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 23 ranks apart
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #120 rush offense South Dakota Coyotes #143 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 161 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #73 pass offense South Dakota Coyotes #234 pass defense
Run game even 34 ranks apart
South Dakota Coyotes #60 rush offense North Dakota Fighting Hawks #26 run defense
Pass game even 25 ranks apart
South Dakota Coyotes #27 pass offense North Dakota Fighting Hawks #52 pass defense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg South Dakota Coyotes Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
P Luke Silvernale 5 punts · 49.8 yd avg #2 P
WR Korey Tai 12 rec · 274 yds · 4 TD #30 WR
DB Jonnie Wiltshire 9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #89 DB
DL Brody Thornton 8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #114 DL
South Dakota Coyotes
P Brook Honore Jr. 9 punts · 47.1 yd avg #5 P
RB Charles Pierre Jr. 261 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec #27 RB
WR Brayden White 13 rec · 164 yds · 4 TD #61 WR
K Bohdie Ing 4 FG · 18 XP · 30 pts #15 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Dakota Fighting Hawks +12.7 +10.8 +1.9 #70
South Dakota Coyotes +9.5 +8.1 +1.4 #88

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Dakota offense vs South Dakota defense+9.4 pts
South Dakota offense vs North Dakota defense+6.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-0.5

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).