Our side
MoneylineUND to win
ours 43%
Projected score
34–31
UND – SDAK
2026-10-24 · 2:00 PM
The DakotaDome · Vermillion, SD
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Dakota lead
6–5
· 11 meetings since 2009
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
23 ranks apart
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #120 rush offense
South Dakota Coyotes #143 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
161 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #73 pass offense
South Dakota Coyotes #234 pass defense
Run game
even
34 ranks apart
South Dakota Coyotes #60 rush offense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #26 run defense
Pass game
even
25 ranks apart
South Dakota Coyotes #27 pass offense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #52 pass defense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg
South Dakota Coyotes
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
P
Luke Silvernale
5 punts · 49.8 yd avg
#2 P
WR
Korey Tai
12 rec · 274 yds · 4 TD
#30 WR
DB
Jonnie Wiltshire
9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#89 DB
DL
Brody Thornton
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#114 DL
South Dakota Coyotes
P
Brook Honore Jr.
9 punts · 47.1 yd avg
#5 P
RB
Charles Pierre Jr.
261 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec
#27 RB
WR
Brayden White
13 rec · 164 yds · 4 TD
#61 WR
K
Bohdie Ing
4 FG · 18 XP · 30 pts
#15 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Dakota offense vs South Dakota defense+9.4 pts
South Dakota offense vs North Dakota defense+6.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-0.5
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).