Our side
MoneylineUND to win
ours 75%
Projected score
26–37
SDST – UND
2026-10-17 · 2:00 PM
Alerus Center · Grand Forks, ND
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Dakota State lead
7–1
· 8 meetings since 2010
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
81 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #107 rush offense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #26 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks
59 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #111 pass offense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #52 pass defense
Run game
edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits
90 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #120 rush offense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #30 run defense
Pass game
even
20 ranks apart
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #73 pass offense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #93 pass defense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
K
Tristan Alvano
6 FG · 17 XP · 35 pts
#4 K
P
Max Pelham
10 punts · 47.9 yd avg
#3 P
TE
Greyton Gannon
5 rec · 81 yds · 2 TD
#36 TE
WR
Grahm Goering
13 rec · 254 yds
#127 WR
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
P
Luke Silvernale
5 punts · 49.8 yd avg
#2 P
WR
Korey Tai
12 rec · 274 yds · 4 TD
#30 WR
DB
Jonnie Wiltshire
9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#89 DB
DL
Brody Thornton
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#114 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
South Dakota State offense vs North Dakota defense+3.8 pts
North Dakota offense vs South Dakota State defense+10.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.2
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.