← Matchups

North Dakota

· 3-0 · power +12.7 · #70
Our numberUND -23.6 no book has priced this game

Portland State

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -12.8 · #326
Final UND 47 · PRST 23 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUND to win logged ours 9%

Our number: UND by 21.4 — UND to win.

Projected score 44–20 UND – PRST
2026-09-12 · 10:00 PM Hillsboro Stadium · Portland, OR Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series North Dakota lead 5–1 · 6 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 142 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #120 rush offense Portland State Vikings #262 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 177 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #73 pass offense Portland State Vikings #250 pass defense
Run game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 232 ranks
Portland State Vikings #258 rush offense North Dakota Fighting Hawks #26 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 172 ranks
Portland State Vikings #224 pass offense North Dakota Fighting Hawks #52 pass defense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg Portland State Vikings Balanced · 56% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
P Luke Silvernale 5 punts · 49.8 yd avg #2 P
WR Korey Tai 12 rec · 274 yds · 4 TD #30 WR
DB Jonnie Wiltshire 9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #89 DB
DL Brody Thornton 8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #114 DL
Portland State Vikings
DB Lono Solomon 19 tkl · 2 PD #23 DB
DB Isaac Redford 17 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #24 DB
TE Tanner Beaman 16 rec · 157 yds · 1 TD #7 TE
WR Terence Loville 15 rec · 221 yds · 1 TD #70 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Dakota Fighting Hawks +12.7 +10.8 +1.9 #70
Portland State Vikings -12.8 -2.7 -10.1 #326

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Dakota offense vs Portland State defense+20.9 pts
Portland State offense vs North Dakota defense-4.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,228 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.