← Matchups

Murray State

· 1-2 · power -21.1 · #382
Our numberILST -38.0 no book has priced this game

Illinois State

· 3-0 · power +13.0 · #67
Our side
MoneylineILST to win ours 99%
Projected score 8–46 MUR – ILST
2026-10-31 · 2:00 PM Hancock Stadium · Normal, IL Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Illinois State lead 7–0 · 7 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 25 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense Illinois State Redbirds #142 run defense
Pass game edge Illinois State Redbirds 94 ranks
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense Illinois State Redbirds #134 pass defense
Run game edge Illinois State Redbirds 137 ranks
Illinois State Redbirds #123 rush offense Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game edge Illinois State Redbirds 184 ranks
Illinois State Redbirds #79 pass offense Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Murray State Racers Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Illinois State Redbirds Balanced · 55% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Murray State Racers
DL Jayden Walker 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #67 DL
LB Klayton Ingram 22 tkl · 1.5 TFL #132 LB
RB Tyrell Campbell 213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #108 RB
DB Dylan Rowsey 18 tkl · 1 PD #377 DB
Illinois State Redbirds
DB Jack Oliver 6 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #47 DB
LB Tye Niekamp 14 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #64 LB
TE Alex Herrera 4 rec · 49 yds · 2 TD #43 TE
WR Dylan Lord 13 rec · 134 yds · 1 TD #134 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Murray State Racers -21.1 -12.8 -8.3 #382
Illinois State Redbirds +13.0 +7.6 +5.4 #67

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Murray State offense vs Illinois State defense-18.2 pts
Illinois State offense vs Murray State defense+15.9 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.