Our side
MoneylineILST to win
ours 99%
Projected score
8–46
MUR – ILST
2026-10-31 · 2:00 PM
Hancock Stadium · Normal, IL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Illinois State lead
7–0
· 7 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
25 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense
Illinois State Redbirds #142 run defense
Pass game
edge Illinois State Redbirds
94 ranks
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense
Illinois State Redbirds #134 pass defense
Run game
edge Illinois State Redbirds
137 ranks
Illinois State Redbirds #123 rush offense
Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game
edge Illinois State Redbirds
184 ranks
Illinois State Redbirds #79 pass offense
Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Murray State Racers
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Illinois State Redbirds
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Murray State Racers
DL
Jayden Walker
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#67 DL
LB
Klayton Ingram
22 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#132 LB
RB
Tyrell Campbell
213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#108 RB
DB
Dylan Rowsey
18 tkl · 1 PD
#377 DB
Illinois State Redbirds
DB
Jack Oliver
6 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#47 DB
LB
Tye Niekamp
14 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#64 LB
TE
Alex Herrera
4 rec · 49 yds · 2 TD
#43 TE
WR
Dylan Lord
13 rec · 134 yds · 1 TD
#134 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Murray State offense vs Illinois State defense-18.2 pts
Illinois State offense vs Murray State defense+15.9 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.