← Matchups

Holy Cross

· 0-3 (0-2) · power -16.9 · #358

Our numberHARV -26.1 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Harvard

· power +5.6 · #115

Our side

MoneylineHARV to win ours 95%

Projected score 15–41 HC – HARV

2026-10-17 · 1:00 PM Harvard Stadium · Cambridge, MA Preseason estimate

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Harvard lead 39–16–1 · 56 meetings since 1904

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Harvard Crimson ~~161 ranks~~

Holy Cross Crusaders #231 rush offense Harvard Crimson #70 run defense

Pass game edge Harvard Crimson ~~175 ranks~~

Holy Cross Crusaders #243 pass offense Harvard Crimson #68 pass defense

Run game edge Harvard Crimson ~~96 ranks~~

Harvard Crimson #31 rush offense Holy Cross Crusaders #127 run defense

Pass game even ~~27 ranks apart~~

Harvard Crimson #18 pass offense Holy Cross Crusaders #45 pass defense

Holy Cross Crusaders Run-heavy · 65% run Ball-control Harvard Crimson Balanced · 45% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Holy Cross Crusaders

LB Adam Due 27 tkl · 1.5 TFL #100 LB

DB Garrett Baldwin 12 tkl · 3 PD #180 DB

TE Drae Tyme 4 rec · 81 yds · 1 TD #48 TE

WR Myles Abernathy 10 rec · 138 yds #238 WR

Harvard Crimson

No graded players for this team in 2025.

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Holy Cross Crusaders	-16.9	-12.0	-4.9	#358
Harvard Crimson	+5.6	+6.5	-0.8	#115

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Holy Cross offense vs Harvard defense-11.2 pts

Harvard offense vs Holy Cross defense+11.4 pts

Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.