← Matchups

Chicago State

· 1-2 · power -12.5 · #323

Our numberLIN -0.4 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Lindenwood

· 1-2 (1-0) · power -11.9 · #319

Our side

MoneylineLIN to win ours 51%

Projected score 30–30 CHIC – LIN

2026-10-24 · 3:00 PM Hunter Stadium · Saint Charles, MO Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Lindenwood Lions Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Chicago State Cougars

DL Jayden Earley 12 tkl · 1.5 TFL #6 DL

DL Lesroy Tittle 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #7 DL

DL Tehron Spencer 14 tkl · 2.0 TFL #38 DL

DL Armani Itote 11 tkl · 2.0 TFL #108 DL

Lindenwood Lions

DL Mason Burke 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #152 DL

DL King Smith 8 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #182 DL

DB Isaac Edwards 7 tkl · 1 INT #378 DB

DL David Amaliri 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #451 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Chicago State Cougars	-12.5	-4.2	-8.3	#323
Lindenwood Lions	-11.9	-4.9	-7.1	#319

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Chicago State offense vs Lindenwood defense+2.9 pts

Lindenwood offense vs Chicago State defense+3.4 pts

Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.9 pts

Power projection before adjustment+3.3

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).