Our side
MoneylineSTBK to win
ours 86%
Projected score
20–38
HAMP – STBK
2026-11-21 · 12:00 PM
Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium · Stony Brook, NY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Stony Brook Seawolves
184 ranks
Hampton Pirates #218 rush offense
Stony Brook Seawolves #34 run defense
Pass game
edge Stony Brook Seawolves
70 ranks
Hampton Pirates #231 pass offense
Stony Brook Seawolves #161 pass defense
Run game
edge Stony Brook Seawolves
146 ranks
Stony Brook Seawolves #110 rush offense
Hampton Pirates #256 run defense
Pass game
even
21 ranks apart
Stony Brook Seawolves #229 pass offense
Hampton Pirates #208 pass defense
Hampton Pirates
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Stony Brook Seawolves
Balanced · 52% run
Up-tempo
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Hampton Pirates
DB
Cam Sturdifen
27 tkl
#143 DB
DB
Caden Rice
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#154 DB
DL
Korede Sogbesan
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#333 DL
DB
Qwae Willis
16 tkl · 1 PD
#410 DB
Stony Brook Seawolves
DL
Khalid Bueno
21 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 8.5 TFL
#2 DL
DB
Joseph Garcia
34 tkl · 1 INT
#3 DB
WR
Seth Sweitzer
24 rec · 288 yds · 2 TD
#22 WR
TE
Keiden Gutierrez
10 rec · 102 yds · 2 TD
#14 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Hampton offense vs Stony Brook defense-5.1 pts
Stony Brook offense vs Hampton defense+9.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment+17.7
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).