← Matchups

Hampton

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -25.5 · #389
Our numberSTBK -17.7 no book has priced this game

Stony Brook

· 1-2 · power -11.1 · #310
Our side
MoneylineSTBK to win ours 86%
Projected score 20–38 HAMP – STBK
2026-11-21 · 12:00 PM Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium · Stony Brook, NY Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Stony Brook Seawolves 184 ranks
Hampton Pirates #218 rush offense Stony Brook Seawolves #34 run defense
Pass game edge Stony Brook Seawolves 70 ranks
Hampton Pirates #231 pass offense Stony Brook Seawolves #161 pass defense
Run game edge Stony Brook Seawolves 146 ranks
Stony Brook Seawolves #110 rush offense Hampton Pirates #256 run defense
Pass game even 21 ranks apart
Stony Brook Seawolves #229 pass offense Hampton Pirates #208 pass defense
Hampton Pirates Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Stony Brook Seawolves Balanced · 52% run Up-tempo

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Hampton Pirates
DB Cam Sturdifen 27 tkl #143 DB
DB Caden Rice 13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #154 DB
DL Korede Sogbesan 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #333 DL
DB Qwae Willis 16 tkl · 1 PD #410 DB
Stony Brook Seawolves
DL Khalid Bueno 21 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 8.5 TFL #2 DL
DB Joseph Garcia 34 tkl · 1 INT #3 DB
WR Seth Sweitzer 24 rec · 288 yds · 2 TD #22 WR
TE Keiden Gutierrez 10 rec · 102 yds · 2 TD #14 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Hampton Pirates -25.5 -14.9 -10.5 #389
Stony Brook Seawolves -11.1 -1.3 -9.8 #310

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Hampton offense vs Stony Brook defense-5.1 pts
Stony Brook offense vs Hampton defense+9.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment+17.7

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).