← Matchups

Monmouth

· 1-2 · power -7.2 · #268
Our numberMONM -0.9 no book has priced this game

New Hampshire

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -10.9 · #308
Our side
MoneylineMONM to win ours 48%
Projected score 33–32 MONM – UNH
2026-10-17 · 1:00 PM Wildcat Stadium (NH) · Durham, NH Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series New Hampshire lead 4–0 · 4 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Monmouth Hawks 201 ranks
Monmouth Hawks #26 rush offense New Hampshire Wildcats #227 run defense
Pass game edge Monmouth Hawks 132 ranks
Monmouth Hawks #21 pass offense New Hampshire Wildcats #153 pass defense
Run game even 18 ranks apart
New Hampshire Wildcats #116 rush offense Monmouth Hawks #134 run defense
Pass game even 12 ranks apart
New Hampshire Wildcats #116 pass offense Monmouth Hawks #128 pass defense
Monmouth Hawks Balanced · 51% run Up-tempo New Hampshire Wildcats Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Monmouth Hawks
DB Jaeden Jones 33 tkl #31 DB
RB Kenny Smith Jr. 166 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec #41 RB
WR Tra Neal 19 rec · 188 yds · 1 TD #63 WR
WR Gavin Nelson 19 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD #83 WR
New Hampshire Wildcats
LB Trevor Barry 39 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #21 LB
DB Jackson Stone 27 tkl · 1 PD #76 DB
WR Ja'Carree Kelly 14 rec · 211 yds · 1 TD #110 WR
RB Joquez Smith 208 rush yds · 3 TD #82 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Monmouth Hawks -7.2 +2.0 -9.3 #268
New Hampshire Wildcats -10.9 -2.0 -8.8 #308

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Monmouth offense vs New Hampshire defense+10.8 pts
New Hampshire offense vs Monmouth defense+7.2 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.