Our side
MoneylineNDSU to win
ours 48%
Projected score
28–28
NDSU – SJSU
2026-11-27 · 3:30 PM
CEFCU Stadium · San Jose, CA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Dakota State Bison
139 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #8 rush offense
San José State Spartans #147 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota State Bison
182 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #2 pass offense
San José State Spartans #184 pass defense
Run game
edge North Dakota State Bison
60 ranks
San José State Spartans #118 rush offense
North Dakota State Bison #58 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota State Bison
193 ranks
San José State Spartans #194 pass offense
North Dakota State Bison #1 pass defense
North Dakota State Bison
Run-heavy · 67% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg
San José State Spartans
Pass-heavy · 41% run
Avg pace
Ken Niumatalolo · 62-63
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota State Bison
K
Drew Klein
6 FG · 13 XP · 31 pts
#7 K
DB
Marion Moore
3 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#110 DB
DL
Kelton McCaslin
6 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#133 DL
LB
Donovan Woolen
22 tkl
#93 LB
San José State Spartans
LB
Dylan Lee
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#10 LB
LB
Naseri Danielson
22 tkl
#22 LB
DB
Caleb Womack
25 tkl · 1 INT
#46 DB
QB
Luke Weaver
788 pass yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
#14 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Dakota State offense vs San José State defense+7.8 pts
San José State offense vs North Dakota State defense-7.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+1.1
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,437 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.