← Matchups

Nevada

MWC · 1-1 · power +5.6 · #116

Our numberUNLV -3.6 ~~no book has priced this game~~

UNLV

MWC · 1-2 (1-0 MWC) · power +10.0 · #85

Our side

MoneylineUNLV to win ours 65%

Projected score 23–27 NEV – UNLV

2026-11-28 · 9:00 PM Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV MWC game Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Nevada lead 25–17 · 42 meetings since 1978

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Nevada Wolf Pack ~~54 ranks~~

Nevada Wolf Pack #179 rush offense UNLV Rebels #233 run defense

Pass game edge UNLV Rebels ~~117 ranks~~

Nevada Wolf Pack #263 pass offense UNLV Rebels #146 pass defense

Run game edge UNLV Rebels ~~230 ranks~~

UNLV Rebels #20 rush offense Nevada Wolf Pack #250 run defense

Pass game edge UNLV Rebels ~~65 ranks~~

UNLV Rebels #50 pass offense Nevada Wolf Pack #115 pass defense

Nevada Wolf Pack Run-heavy · 64% run Ball-control UNLV Rebels Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg

Jeff Choate · 6-19 Dan Mullen · 67-34 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Nevada Wolf Pack

DL Dylan LaBarbera 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #16 DL

LB EJ Smith 24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #13 LB

RB Dominic Kelley 236 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #53 RB

LB Jeremy Naborne-Owens 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #150 LB

UNLV Rebels

DB Tre Fulton 21 tkl · 1 PD #28 DB

DB Jake Pope 23 tkl · 1 PD #62 DB

RB Jai'Den Thomas 224 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #69 RB

DB Denver Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #212 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Nevada Wolf Pack~~MWC~~	+5.6	-3.4	+8.9	#116
UNLV Rebels~~MWC~~	+10.0	+1.9	+8.1	#85

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Nevada offense vs UNLV defense-11.4 pts

UNLV offense vs Nevada defense-7.0 pts

Altitude · context only740 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.