Our side
MoneylineHAW to win
ours 87%
Projected score
18–37
SAC – HAW
2026-11-28 · 11:00 PM
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu, HI
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Sacramento State Hornets
118 ranks
Sacramento State Hornets #7 rush offense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #125 run defense
Pass game
even
14 ranks apart
Sacramento State Hornets #159 pass offense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #145 pass defense
Run game
edge Sacramento State Hornets
52 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #205 rush offense
Sacramento State Hornets #153 run defense
Pass game
even
10 ranks apart
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #97 pass offense
Sacramento State Hornets #87 pass defense
Sacramento State Hornets
Run-heavy · 73% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 32 rush ypg
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Timmy Chang · 22-29
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Sacramento State Hornets
WR
Matt Coleman
14 rec · 232 yds · 3 TD
#62 WR
DB
Boogsie Silvera
23 tkl
#279 DB
WR
Onterrio Smith Jr.
16 rec · 172 yds
#183 WR
DB
Amari Wallace
17 tkl
#422 DB
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
DB
Kona Moore
30 tkl · 2 PD
#13 DB
RB
DeVon Rice
167 rush yds · 3 TD · 10 rec
#23 RB
LB
Jamih Otis
26 tkl
#53 LB
DB
Matagi Thompson
15 tkl · 4 PD
#122 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Sacramento State offense vs Hawai'i defense-3.7 pts
Hawai'i offense vs Sacramento State defense+2.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment+18.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,462 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 10 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.