Our side
MoneylineUNM to win
ours 31%
Projected score
32–19
UNM – HAW
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu, HI
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Hawai'i lead
17–11
· 28 meetings since 1964
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
16 ranks apart
New Mexico Lobos #109 rush offense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #125 run defense
Pass game
even
30 ranks apart
New Mexico Lobos #115 pass offense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #145 pass defense
Run game
edge New Mexico Lobos
132 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #205 rush offense
New Mexico Lobos #73 run defense
Pass game
even
2 ranks apart
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #97 pass offense
New Mexico Lobos #99 pass defense
New Mexico Lobos
Balanced · 56% run
Avg pace
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Jason Eck · 9-4
Timmy Chang · 22-29
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
New Mexico Lobos
RB
Scottre Humphrey
174 rush yds · 3 TD
#64 RB
TE
Cade Keith
5 rec · 91 yds · 1 TD
#46 TE
DL
Brett Karhu
4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#260 DL
K
Grant Glasgow
3 FG · 10 XP · 19 pts
#43 K
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
DB
Kona Moore
30 tkl · 2 PD
#13 DB
RB
DeVon Rice
167 rush yds · 3 TD · 10 rec
#23 RB
LB
Jamih Otis
26 tkl
#53 LB
DB
Matagi Thompson
15 tkl · 4 PD
#122 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Mexico offense vs Hawai'i defense+6.1 pts
Hawai'i offense vs New Mexico defense-3.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 3,222 mi
Altitude · context only1,550 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.