← Matchups

Tulsa

AAC · 2-0 · power +4.8 · #124
Our numberTLSA -2.0 no book has priced this game

Rice

AAC · 1-1 · power +3.0 · #139
Our side
MoneylineRICE to win ours 50%
Projected score 26–24 TLSA – RICE
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD Rice Stadium · Houston, TX AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Tulsa lead 10–9–1 · 20 meetings since 1937
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Tulsa Golden Hurricane 60 ranks
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #157 rush offense Rice Owls #217 run defense
Pass game edge Tulsa Golden Hurricane 51 ranks
Tulsa Golden Hurricane #192 pass offense Rice Owls #243 pass defense
Run game edge Tulsa Golden Hurricane 123 ranks
Rice Owls #171 rush offense Tulsa Golden Hurricane #48 run defense
Pass game edge Tulsa Golden Hurricane 87 ranks
Rice Owls #218 pass offense Tulsa Golden Hurricane #131 pass defense
Tulsa Golden Hurricane Balanced · 55% run Up-tempo Rice Owls Run-heavy · 78% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Tre Lamb · 4-8 Scott Abell · 5-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
DL Thomas Davis 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #9 DL
DL Kyran Duhon 9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #95 DL
LB Dax Collins 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #63 LB
LB Chris Thompson Jr. 18 tkl #106 LB
Rice Owls
DL Chibby Nwajuaku 9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #148 DL
DL AJ Brown 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #157 DL
DL Braden Bays 7 tkl · 2.0 TFL #345 DL
RB Quinton Jackson 61 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #224 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Tulsa Golden HurricaneAAC +4.8 -0.9 +5.8 #124
Rice OwlsAAC +3.0 -4.4 +7.4 #139

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Tulsa offense vs Rice defense-8.4 pts
Rice offense vs Tulsa defense-10.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 446 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.