← Matchups

Florida Atlantic

AAC · 1-1 (1-0 AAC) · power +1.9 · #153

Our numberFAU -4.5 ~~no book has priced this game~~

UL Monroe

SBC · 0-2 · power -4.2 · #234

Our side

MoneylineFAU to win ours 41%

Projected score 32–27 FAU – ULM

2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD Malone Stadium · Monroe, LA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UL Monroe lead 7–2 · 9 meetings since 2004

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge UL Monroe Warhawks ~~92 ranks~~

Florida Atlantic Owls #211 rush offense UL Monroe Warhawks #119 run defense

Pass game edge Florida Atlantic Owls ~~107 ranks~~

Florida Atlantic Owls #92 pass offense UL Monroe Warhawks #199 pass defense

Run game even ~~41 ranks apart~~

UL Monroe Warhawks #204 rush offense Florida Atlantic Owls #245 run defense

Pass game even ~~21 ranks apart~~

UL Monroe Warhawks #137 pass offense Florida Atlantic Owls #158 pass defense

Florida Atlantic Owls Pass-heavy · 37% run Ball-control UL Monroe Warhawks Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control

Zach Kittley · 4-8 · offense-minded Bryant Vincent · 15-22

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Florida Atlantic Owls

WR Easton Messer 15 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD #12 WR

WR Kelby Valsin 18 rec · 207 yds · 2 TD #15 WR

DB Jayden Sweeney 12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #95 DB

DB Josh Roberts 7 tkl #104 DB

UL Monroe Warhawks

DB Jabari Tiller 18 tkl · 1 PD #116 DB

DB Carl Fauntroy 12 tkl · 1 INT #119 DB

LB Noah Flemmings 20 tkl · 0.5 TFL #137 LB

DL Kevontay Wells 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #438 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Florida Atlantic Owls~~AAC~~	+1.9	+9.4	-7.5	#153
UL Monroe Warhawks~~SBC~~	-4.2	-3.9	-0.4	#234

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Florida Atlantic offense vs UL Monroe defense+9.7 pts

UL Monroe offense vs Florida Atlantic defense+3.6 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 835 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.