Our side
MoneylineBOIS to win
ours 77%
Projected score
20–31
SDSU – BOIS
2026-11-21 · 9:30 PM
Albertsons Stadium · Boise, ID
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Boise State lead
6–5
· 11 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge San Diego State Aztecs
130 ranks
San Diego State Aztecs #74 rush offense
Boise State Broncos #204 run defense
Pass game
edge Boise State Broncos
193 ranks
San Diego State Aztecs #211 pass offense
Boise State Broncos #18 pass defense
Run game
even
8 ranks apart
Boise State Broncos #61 rush offense
San Diego State Aztecs #53 run defense
Pass game
edge San Diego State Aztecs
102 ranks
Boise State Broncos #105 pass offense
San Diego State Aztecs #3 pass defense
San Diego State Aztecs
Run-heavy · 66% run
Ball-control
Boise State Broncos
Balanced · 58% run
Avg pace
Sean Lewis · 36-44 · defense-minded
Spencer Danielson · 24-8
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
San Diego State Aztecs
DB
Mike Lindsay
5 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#155 DB
RB
Lucky Sutton
139 rush yds · 3 TD
#105 RB
DL
Gavriel Lightfoot
8 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#306 DL
DB
Jelani McLaughlin
13 tkl · 1 PD
#346 DB
Boise State Broncos
LB
Boen Phelps
16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#34 LB
DB
Travis Anderson
16 tkl · 1 INT
#58 DB
RB
Sire Gaines
132 rush yds · 1 TD · 3 rec
#57 RB
RB
Dylan Riley
256 rush yds · 3 rec
#84 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
San Diego State offense vs Boise State defense-8.6 pts
Boise State offense vs San Diego State defense+1.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 749 mi
Altitude · context only804 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.