← Matchups

Oregon State

PAC · 0-2 · power +4.4 · #127
Our numberFRES -5.7 no book has priced this game

Fresno State

MWC · 1-1 · power +10.1 · #83
Our side
MoneylineFRES to win ours 68%
Projected score 21–27 ORST – FRES
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno, CA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Fresno State lead 9–6 · 15 meetings since 1981
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Fresno State Bulldogs 137 ranks
Oregon State Beavers #240 rush offense Fresno State Bulldogs #103 run defense
Pass game edge Fresno State Bulldogs 160 ranks
Oregon State Beavers #239 pass offense Fresno State Bulldogs #79 pass defense
Run game edge Oregon State Beavers 145 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #234 rush offense Oregon State Beavers #89 run defense
Pass game edge Fresno State Bulldogs 58 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #119 pass offense Oregon State Beavers #177 pass defense
Oregon State Beavers Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Fresno State Bulldogs Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control
Trent Bray · 5-14 · defense-minded Matt Entz · 9-4 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Oregon State Beavers
WR Jesse Legree 13 rec · 376 yds · 3 TD #3 WR
LB Aiden Sullivan 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #8 LB
DB Sailasa Vadrawale III 9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #55 DB
LB Takari Hickle 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #95 LB
Fresno State Bulldogs
DL Jahzon Jacks 9 tkl · 2.0 TFL #89 DL
DL Martin Owusu 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #118 DL
RB Bryson Donelson 117 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #116 RB
LB K'vion Thunderbird 13 tkl · 2.0 TFL #222 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Oregon State BeaversPAC +4.4 +0.4 +4.0 #127
Fresno State BulldogsMWC +10.1 -0.4 +10.5 #83

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Oregon State offense vs Fresno State defense-10.1 pts
Fresno State offense vs Oregon State defense-4.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 566 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.