← Matchups

Utah State

MWC · 0-2 · power +8.0 · #93
Our numberUSU -2.2 no book has priced this game

Oregon State

PAC · 0-2 · power +4.4 · #127
Our side
MoneylineUSU to win ours 46%
Projected score 28–26 USU – ORST
2026-11-21 · 10:30 PM Reser Stadium · Corvallis, OR Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Oregon State lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 1997
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 26 ranks apart
Utah State Aggies #63 rush offense Oregon State Beavers #89 run defense
Pass game edge Utah State Aggies 51 ranks
Utah State Aggies #126 pass offense Oregon State Beavers #177 pass defense
Run game even 17 ranks apart
Oregon State Beavers #240 rush offense Utah State Aggies #223 run defense
Pass game edge Utah State Aggies 178 ranks
Oregon State Beavers #239 pass offense Utah State Aggies #61 pass defense
Utah State Aggies Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 61 rush ypg Oregon State Beavers Balanced · 54% run Avg pace
Bronco Mendenhall · 56-56 · offense-minded Trent Bray · 5-14 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Utah State Aggies
DL Carson Tujague 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #62 DL
WR Eli Wood 12 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #55 WR
WR Javon Robinson 6 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD #163 WR
DB Brevin Hamblin 10 tkl · 1 PD #366 DB
Oregon State Beavers
WR Jesse Legree 13 rec · 376 yds · 3 TD #3 WR
LB Aiden Sullivan 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #8 LB
DB Sailasa Vadrawale III 9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #55 DB
LB Takari Hickle 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #95 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Utah State AggiesMWC +8.0 +2.3 +5.7 #93
Oregon State BeaversPAC +4.4 +0.4 +4.0 #127

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Utah State offense vs Oregon State defense-1.7 pts
Oregon State offense vs Utah State defense-5.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 609 mi
Altitude · context only1,361 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.