Our side
MoneylineUSU to win
ours 46%
Projected score
28–26
USU – ORST
2026-11-21 · 10:30 PM
Reser Stadium · Corvallis, OR
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Oregon State lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 1997
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
26 ranks apart
Utah State Aggies #63 rush offense
Oregon State Beavers #89 run defense
Pass game
edge Utah State Aggies
51 ranks
Utah State Aggies #126 pass offense
Oregon State Beavers #177 pass defense
Run game
even
17 ranks apart
Oregon State Beavers #240 rush offense
Utah State Aggies #223 run defense
Pass game
edge Utah State Aggies
178 ranks
Oregon State Beavers #239 pass offense
Utah State Aggies #61 pass defense
Utah State Aggies
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 61 rush ypg
Oregon State Beavers
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Bronco Mendenhall · 56-56 · offense-minded
Trent Bray · 5-14 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Utah State Aggies
DL
Carson Tujague
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#62 DL
WR
Eli Wood
12 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD
#55 WR
WR
Javon Robinson
6 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD
#163 WR
DB
Brevin Hamblin
10 tkl · 1 PD
#366 DB
Oregon State Beavers
WR
Jesse Legree
13 rec · 376 yds · 3 TD
#3 WR
LB
Aiden Sullivan
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#8 LB
DB
Sailasa Vadrawale III
9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#55 DB
LB
Takari Hickle
12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#95 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Utah State offense vs Oregon State defense-1.7 pts
Oregon State offense vs Utah State defense-5.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 609 mi
Altitude · context only1,361 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.