Our side
MoneylineSDSU to win
ours 64%
Projected score
23–28
USU – SDSU
2026-11-14 · 9:30 PM
Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego, CA
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
San Diego State lead
13–5
· 18 meetings since 1947
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
10 ranks apart
Utah State Aggies #63 rush offense
San Diego State Aztecs #53 run defense
Pass game
edge San Diego State Aztecs
123 ranks
Utah State Aggies #126 pass offense
San Diego State Aztecs #3 pass defense
Run game
edge San Diego State Aztecs
149 ranks
San Diego State Aztecs #74 rush offense
Utah State Aggies #223 run defense
Pass game
edge Utah State Aggies
150 ranks
San Diego State Aztecs #211 pass offense
Utah State Aggies #61 pass defense
Utah State Aggies
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 61 rush ypg
San Diego State Aztecs
Run-heavy · 66% run
Ball-control
Bronco Mendenhall · 56-56 · offense-minded
Sean Lewis · 36-44 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Utah State Aggies
DL
Carson Tujague
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#62 DL
WR
Eli Wood
12 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD
#55 WR
WR
Javon Robinson
6 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD
#163 WR
DB
Brevin Hamblin
10 tkl · 1 PD
#366 DB
San Diego State Aztecs
DB
Mike Lindsay
5 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#155 DB
RB
Lucky Sutton
139 rush yds · 3 TD
#105 RB
DL
Gavriel Lightfoot
8 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#306 DL
DB
Jelani McLaughlin
13 tkl · 1 PD
#346 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Utah State offense vs San Diego State defense-6.7 pts
San Diego State offense vs Utah State defense-3.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 685 mi
Altitude · context only1,409 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.