Our side
MoneylineFRES to win
ours 50%
Projected score
29–22
FRES – USU
2026-11-07 · 9:30 PM
Maverik Stadium · Logan, UT
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Fresno State lead
19–14–1
· 34 meetings since 1952
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
11 ranks apart
Fresno State Bulldogs #234 rush offense
Utah State Aggies #223 run defense
Pass game
edge Utah State Aggies
58 ranks
Fresno State Bulldogs #119 pass offense
Utah State Aggies #61 pass defense
Run game
even
40 ranks apart
Utah State Aggies #63 rush offense
Fresno State Bulldogs #103 run defense
Pass game
edge Fresno State Bulldogs
47 ranks
Utah State Aggies #126 pass offense
Fresno State Bulldogs #79 pass defense
Fresno State Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Utah State Aggies
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 61 rush ypg
Matt Entz · 9-4 · defense-minded
Bronco Mendenhall · 56-56 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Fresno State Bulldogs
DL
Jahzon Jacks
9 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#89 DL
DL
Martin Owusu
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#118 DL
RB
Bryson Donelson
117 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#116 RB
LB
K'vion Thunderbird
13 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#222 LB
Utah State Aggies
DL
Carson Tujague
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#62 DL
WR
Eli Wood
12 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD
#55 WR
WR
Javon Robinson
6 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD
#163 WR
DB
Brevin Hamblin
10 tkl · 1 PD
#366 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Fresno State offense vs Utah State defense-6.1 pts
Utah State offense vs Fresno State defense-8.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 544 mi
Altitude · context only1,337 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.