← Matchups

Boise State

MWC · 1-1 · power +22.0 · #25
Our numberBOIS -9.7 no book has priced this game

Colorado State

MWC · 2-0 (1-0 MWC) · power +7.2 · #101
Our side
MoneylineBOIS to win ours 21%
Projected score 31–22 BOIS – CSU
2026-11-07 · 6:00 PM Canvas Stadium · Fort Collins, CO MWC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Boise State lead 13–1 · 14 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Boise State Broncos 125 ranks
Boise State Broncos #61 rush offense Colorado State Rams #186 run defense
Pass game edge Boise State Broncos 160 ranks
Boise State Broncos #105 pass offense Colorado State Rams #265 pass defense
Run game edge Colorado State Rams 72 ranks
Colorado State Rams #132 rush offense Boise State Broncos #204 run defense
Pass game edge Boise State Broncos 165 ranks
Colorado State Rams #183 pass offense Boise State Broncos #18 pass defense
Boise State Broncos Balanced · 58% run Avg pace Colorado State Rams Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Spencer Danielson · 24-8 Tyson Summers · 5-18

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Boise State Broncos
LB Boen Phelps 16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #34 LB
DB Travis Anderson 16 tkl · 1 INT #58 DB
RB Sire Gaines 132 rush yds · 1 TD · 3 rec #57 RB
RB Dylan Riley 256 rush yds · 3 rec #84 RB
Colorado State Rams
QB Hauss Hejny 539 pass yds · 9 TD · 1 INT #11 QB
WR RJ Vick 9 rec · 108 yds · 3 TD #65 WR
DB Tre'Shawn Moore 16 tkl · 1 PD #115 DB
RB Mel Brown 228 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #58 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Boise State BroncosMWC +22.0 +10.7 +11.3 #25
Colorado State RamsMWC +7.2 +6.0 +1.2 #101

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Boise State offense vs Colorado State defense+9.5 pts
Colorado State offense vs Boise State defense-5.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 606 mi
Altitude · context only705 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.