Our side
MoneylineBOIS to win
ours 21%
Projected score
31–22
BOIS – CSU
2026-11-07 · 6:00 PM
Canvas Stadium · Fort Collins, CO
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Boise State lead
13–1
· 14 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Boise State Broncos
125 ranks
Boise State Broncos #61 rush offense
Colorado State Rams #186 run defense
Pass game
edge Boise State Broncos
160 ranks
Boise State Broncos #105 pass offense
Colorado State Rams #265 pass defense
Run game
edge Colorado State Rams
72 ranks
Colorado State Rams #132 rush offense
Boise State Broncos #204 run defense
Pass game
edge Boise State Broncos
165 ranks
Colorado State Rams #183 pass offense
Boise State Broncos #18 pass defense
Boise State Broncos
Balanced · 58% run
Avg pace
Colorado State Rams
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Spencer Danielson · 24-8
Tyson Summers · 5-18
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Boise State Broncos
LB
Boen Phelps
16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#34 LB
DB
Travis Anderson
16 tkl · 1 INT
#58 DB
RB
Sire Gaines
132 rush yds · 1 TD · 3 rec
#57 RB
RB
Dylan Riley
256 rush yds · 3 rec
#84 RB
Colorado State Rams
QB
Hauss Hejny
539 pass yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
#11 QB
WR
RJ Vick
9 rec · 108 yds · 3 TD
#65 WR
DB
Tre'Shawn Moore
16 tkl · 1 PD
#115 DB
RB
Mel Brown
228 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#58 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Boise State offense vs Colorado State defense+9.5 pts
Colorado State offense vs Boise State defense-5.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 606 mi
Altitude · context only705 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.