← Matchups

Boise State

MWC · 1-1 · power +22.0 · #25
Our numberBOIS -6.6 no book has priced this game

Washington State

PAC · 0-2 · power +12.9 · #68
Our side
MoneylineBOIS to win ours 33%
Projected score 28–22 BOIS – WSU
2026-10-24 · 6:00 PM Martin Stadium · Pullman, WA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Washington State lead 5–2 · 7 meetings since 1997
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Boise State Broncos 72 ranks
Boise State Broncos #61 rush offense Washington State Cougars #133 run defense
Pass game edge Washington State Cougars 67 ranks
Boise State Broncos #105 pass offense Washington State Cougars #38 pass defense
Run game edge Washington State Cougars 49 ranks
Washington State Cougars #155 rush offense Boise State Broncos #204 run defense
Pass game edge Boise State Broncos 168 ranks
Washington State Cougars #186 pass offense Boise State Broncos #18 pass defense
Boise State Broncos Balanced · 58% run Avg pace Washington State Cougars Balanced · 53% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg
Spencer Danielson · 24-8 Jimmy Rogers · 6-6 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Boise State Broncos
LB Boen Phelps 16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #34 LB
DB Travis Anderson 16 tkl · 1 INT #58 DB
RB Sire Gaines 132 rush yds · 1 TD · 3 rec #57 RB
RB Dylan Riley 256 rush yds · 3 rec #84 RB
Washington State Cougars
DB Jaylen Thomas 7 tkl · 2 INT #8 DB
DB Jamarey Smith 8 tkl · 1 PD #609 DB
DL Malachi Wrice 4 tkl · 2.0 TFL #704 DL
QB Caden Pinnick 207 pass yds · 2 INT · 90 rush yds #148 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Boise State BroncosMWC +22.0 +10.7 +11.3 #25
Washington State CougarsPAC +12.9 -0.0 +13.0 #68

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Boise State offense vs Washington State defense-2.2 pts
Washington State offense vs Boise State defense-11.3 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.