← Matchups

San Diego State

MWC · 1-1 · power +11.8 · #76
Our numberSDSU -3.3 no book has priced this game

Colorado State

MWC · 2-0 (1-0 MWC) · power +7.2 · #101
Our side
MoneylineSDSU to win ours 43%
Projected score 26–23 SDSU – CSU
2026-10-24 · 6:30 PM Canvas Stadium · Fort Collins, CO MWC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series San Diego State lead 23–15 · 38 meetings since 1978
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge San Diego State Aztecs 112 ranks
San Diego State Aztecs #74 rush offense Colorado State Rams #186 run defense
Pass game edge San Diego State Aztecs 54 ranks
San Diego State Aztecs #211 pass offense Colorado State Rams #265 pass defense
Run game edge San Diego State Aztecs 79 ranks
Colorado State Rams #132 rush offense San Diego State Aztecs #53 run defense
Pass game edge San Diego State Aztecs 180 ranks
Colorado State Rams #183 pass offense San Diego State Aztecs #3 pass defense
San Diego State Aztecs Run-heavy · 66% run Ball-control Colorado State Rams Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Sean Lewis · 36-44 · defense-minded Tyson Summers · 5-18

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
San Diego State Aztecs
DB Mike Lindsay 5 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #155 DB
RB Lucky Sutton 139 rush yds · 3 TD #105 RB
DL Gavriel Lightfoot 8 tkl · 1.0 TFL #306 DL
DB Jelani McLaughlin 13 tkl · 1 PD #346 DB
Colorado State Rams
QB Hauss Hejny 539 pass yds · 9 TD · 1 INT #11 QB
WR RJ Vick 9 rec · 108 yds · 3 TD #65 WR
DB Tre'Shawn Moore 16 tkl · 1 PD #115 DB
RB Mel Brown 228 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #58 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
San Diego State AztecsMWC +11.8 +2.7 +9.1 #76
Colorado State RamsMWC +7.2 +6.0 +1.2 #101

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
San Diego State offense vs Colorado State defense+1.5 pts
Colorado State offense vs San Diego State defense-3.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 855 mi
Altitude · context only1,509 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.