Our side
MoneylineBOIS to win
ours 43%
Projected score
26–24
BOIS – WMU
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD
Waldo Stadium · Kalamazoo, MI
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
14 ranks apart
Boise State Broncos #61 rush offense
Western Michigan Broncos #47 run defense
Pass game
edge Western Michigan Broncos
54 ranks
Boise State Broncos #105 pass offense
Western Michigan Broncos #51 pass defense
Run game
edge Western Michigan Broncos
99 ranks
Western Michigan Broncos #105 rush offense
Boise State Broncos #204 run defense
Pass game
edge Boise State Broncos
217 ranks
Western Michigan Broncos #235 pass offense
Boise State Broncos #18 pass defense
Boise State Broncos
Balanced · 58% run
Avg pace
Western Michigan Broncos
Run-heavy · 69% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 72 rush ypg
Spencer Danielson · 24-8
Lance Taylor · 20-19 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Boise State Broncos
LB
Boen Phelps
16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#34 LB
DB
Travis Anderson
16 tkl · 1 INT
#58 DB
RB
Sire Gaines
132 rush yds · 1 TD · 3 rec
#57 RB
RB
Dylan Riley
256 rush yds · 3 rec
#84 RB
Western Michigan Broncos
DL
Austin Alexander
6 tkl
#111 DL
K
Dieter Kelly
4 FG · 7 XP · 19 pts
#29 K
DB
Joey Pope
9 tkl · 3 PD
#232 DB
LB
Domanick Moon
13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#166 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Boise State offense vs Western Michigan defense-2.6 pts
Western Michigan offense vs Boise State defense-7.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,541 mi
Altitude · context only580 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.