← Matchups

USC

B1G · 3-0 · power +26.1 · #14
Our numberUSC -5.9 no book has priced this game

UCLA

B1G · 2-0 · power +19.9 · #39
Our side
MoneylineUSC to win ours 40%
Projected score 29–23 USC – UCLA
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD Rose Bowl · Pasadena, CA B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series USC lead 54–34–7 · 95 meetings since 1929
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge USC Trojans 201 ranks
USC Trojans #50 rush offense UCLA Bruins #251 run defense
Pass game edge USC Trojans 215 ranks
USC Trojans #9 pass offense UCLA Bruins #224 pass defense
Run game edge UCLA Bruins 86 ranks
UCLA Bruins #71 rush offense USC Trojans #157 run defense
Pass game edge USC Trojans 160 ranks
UCLA Bruins #245 pass offense USC Trojans #85 pass defense
USC Trojans Balanced · 52% run Ball-control UCLA Bruins Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Lincoln Riley · 90-28 · offense-minded Tim Skipper · 9-13

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
USC Trojans
WR Trent Mosley 13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD #13 WR
QB Jayden Maiava 896 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT #7 QB
TE Mark Bowman 12 rec · 128 yds · 2 TD #10 TE
P Lachlan Carrigan 3 punts · 46.7 yd avg #8 P
UCLA Bruins
RB Wayne Knight 168 rush yds · 6 TD · 2 rec #7 RB
DB Ta'Shawn James 13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #16 DB
LB Sammy Omosigho 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #26 LB
LB Jalen Woods 20 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #31 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
USC TrojansB1G +26.1 +16.9 +9.2 #14
UCLA BruinsB1G +19.9 +9.4 +10.5 #39

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
USC offense vs UCLA defense+6.4 pts
UCLA offense vs USC defense+0.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.