Our side
MoneylineIOWA to win
ours 39%
Projected score
27–21
IOWA – ILL
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD
Gies Memorial Stadium · Champaign, IL
B1G game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Illinois lead
39–38–2
· 79 meetings since 1899
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
11 ranks apart
Iowa Hawkeyes #49 rush offense
Illinois Fighting Illini #60 run defense
Pass game
edge Iowa Hawkeyes
48 ranks
Iowa Hawkeyes #131 pass offense
Illinois Fighting Illini #179 pass defense
Run game
edge Iowa Hawkeyes
49 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #124 rush offense
Iowa Hawkeyes #75 run defense
Pass game
even
16 ranks apart
Illinois Fighting Illini #38 pass offense
Iowa Hawkeyes #22 pass defense
Iowa Hawkeyes
Run-heavy · 68% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 41 rush ypg
Illinois Fighting Illini
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Kirk Ferentz · 98-43 · defense-minded
Bret Bielema · 56-45 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Iowa Hawkeyes
RB
Kamari Moulton
240 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec
#19 RB
WR
Tony Diaz
15 rec · 179 yds · 1 TD
#39 WR
K
Caden Buhr
5 FG · 5 XP · 20 pts
#18 K
LB
Cam Buffington
21 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#113 LB
Illinois Fighting Illini
WR
Collin Dixon
17 rec · 236 yds · 5 TD
#5 WR
QB
Katin Houser
453 pass yds · 6 TD · 1 INT
#8 QB
LB
Ismael Kante
10 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#45 LB
LB
Will Holmes
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#102 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Iowa offense vs Illinois defense-1.5 pts
Illinois offense vs Iowa defense-7.9 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.