← Matchups

Washington

B1G · 2-0 · power +21.1 · #31
Our numberWASH -4.3 no book has priced this game

Michigan State

B1G · 2-0 · power +15.3 · #54
Our side
MoneylineWASH to win ours 41%
Projected score 26–21 WASH – MSU
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD Spartan Stadium · East Lansing, MI B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Washington lead 4–1 · 5 meetings since 1969
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Washington Huskies 156 ranks
Washington Huskies #18 rush offense Michigan State Spartans #174 run defense
Pass game edge Washington Huskies 141 ranks
Washington Huskies #29 pass offense Michigan State Spartans #170 pass defense
Run game edge Washington Huskies 129 ranks
Michigan State Spartans #161 rush offense Washington Huskies #32 run defense
Pass game edge Washington Huskies 76 ranks
Michigan State Spartans #136 pass offense Washington Huskies #60 pass defense
Washington Huskies Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 50 rush ypg Michigan State Spartans Balanced · 51% run Avg pace
Jedd Fisch · 32-33 Jonathan Smith · 43-50

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Washington Huskies
DB Alex McLaughlin 15 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #1 DB
QB Demond Williams Jr. 517 pass yds · 1 TD · 0 INT #25 QB
DL Derek Colman-Brusa 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #175 DL
TE Baron Naone 8 rec · 70 yds #60 TE
Michigan State Spartans
DL Eli Coenen 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #21 DL
RB Cam Edwards 250 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec #18 RB
DL Kenny Soares Jr. 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #69 DL
K Liam Boyd 5 FG · 6 XP · 21 pts #17 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Washington HuskiesB1G +21.1 +7.1 +14.1 #31
Michigan State SpartansB1G +15.3 +6.0 +9.3 #54

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Washington offense vs Michigan State defense-2.3 pts
Michigan State offense vs Washington defense-8.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,854 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.