← Matchups

Penn State

B1G · 2-0 · power +28.5 · #9
Our numberPSU -2.8 no book has priced this game

Washington

B1G · 2-0 · power +21.1 · #31
Our side
MoneylinePSU to win ours 37%
Projected score 24–21 PSU – WASH
2026-11-07 · kickoff TBD Husky Stadium · Seattle, WA B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Penn State lead 4–0 · 4 meetings since 1921
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 3 ranks apart
Penn State Nittany Lions #35 rush offense Washington Huskies #32 run defense
Pass game even 36 ranks apart
Penn State Nittany Lions #96 pass offense Washington Huskies #60 pass defense
Run game edge Washington Huskies 97 ranks
Washington Huskies #18 rush offense Penn State Nittany Lions #115 run defense
Pass game even 21 ranks apart
Washington Huskies #29 pass offense Penn State Nittany Lions #50 pass defense
Penn State Nittany Lions Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control Washington Huskies Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 50 rush ypg
Terry Smith · 4-3 Jedd Fisch · 32-33

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Penn State Nittany Lions
TE Benjamin Brahmer 6 rec · 87 yds · 3 TD #4 TE
LB Tony Rojas 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #48 LB
WR Koby Howard 9 rec · 229 yds · 1 TD #71 WR
QB Rocco Becht 539 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #30 QB
Washington Huskies
DB Alex McLaughlin 15 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #1 DB
QB Demond Williams Jr. 517 pass yds · 1 TD · 0 INT #25 QB
DL Derek Colman-Brusa 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #175 DL
TE Baron Naone 8 rec · 70 yds #60 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Penn State Nittany LionsB1G +28.5 +10.4 +18.1 #9
Washington HuskiesB1G +21.1 +7.1 +14.1 #31

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Penn State offense vs Washington defense-3.7 pts
Washington offense vs Penn State defense-11.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,219 mi
Altitude · context only344 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.