← Matchups

Nebraska

B1G · 2-0 · power +19.7 · #40
Our numberILL -0.6 no book has priced this game

Illinois

B1G · 1-1 · power +18.3 · #44
Our side
MoneylineILL to win ours 51%
Projected score 26–27 NEB – ILL
2026-11-06 · 8:00 PM Gies Memorial Stadium · Champaign, IL B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Nebraska lead 14–7–1 · 22 meetings since 1892
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 33 ranks apart
Nebraska Cornhuskers #93 rush offense Illinois Fighting Illini #60 run defense
Pass game even 33 ranks apart
Nebraska Cornhuskers #146 pass offense Illinois Fighting Illini #179 pass defense
Run game edge Illinois Fighting Illini 107 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #124 rush offense Nebraska Cornhuskers #231 run defense
Pass game edge Illinois Fighting Illini 48 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #38 pass offense Nebraska Cornhuskers #86 pass defense
Nebraska Cornhuskers Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Illinois Fighting Illini Balanced · 54% run Ball-control
Matt Rhule · 58-46 Bret Bielema · 56-45 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Nebraska Cornhuskers
RB Jamal Rule 210 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #13 RB
WR Jacory Barney Jr. 13 rec · 175 yds · 2 TD #35 WR
WR Kwazi Gilmer 11 rec · 97 yds · 3 TD #60 WR
RB Mekhi Nelson 112 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec #49 RB
Illinois Fighting Illini
WR Collin Dixon 17 rec · 236 yds · 5 TD #5 WR
QB Katin Houser 453 pass yds · 6 TD · 1 INT #8 QB
LB Ismael Kante 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #45 LB
LB Will Holmes 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #102 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Nebraska CornhuskersB1G +19.7 +14.2 +5.5 #40
Illinois Fighting IlliniB1G +18.3 +9.8 +8.5 #44

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Nebraska offense vs Illinois defense+5.7 pts
Illinois offense vs Nebraska defense+4.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 448 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.