← Matchups

Ohio State

B1G · 1-1 · power +34.9 · #2
Our numberOSU -4.6 no book has priced this game

USC

B1G · 3-0 · power +26.1 · #14
Our side
MoneylineOSU to win ours 34%
Projected score 28–23 OSU – USC
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles, CA B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series USC lead 13–10–1 · 24 meetings since 1937
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 40 ranks apart
Ohio State Buckeyes #117 rush offense USC Trojans #157 run defense
Pass game edge Ohio State Buckeyes 78 ranks
Ohio State Buckeyes #7 pass offense USC Trojans #85 pass defense
Run game edge Ohio State Buckeyes 46 ranks
USC Trojans #50 rush offense Ohio State Buckeyes #4 run defense
Pass game even 0 ranks apart
USC Trojans #9 pass offense Ohio State Buckeyes #9 pass defense
Ohio State Buckeyes Balanced · 52% run Ball-control USC Trojans Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Ryan Day · 82-12 Lincoln Riley · 90-28 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Ohio State Buckeyes
WR Jeremiah Smith 16 rec · 315 yds · 3 TD #7 WR
QB Julian Sayin 598 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT #32 QB
RB Bo Jackson 157 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec #73 RB
DB Earl Little Jr. 15 tkl · 1 PD #175 DB
USC Trojans
WR Trent Mosley 13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD #13 WR
QB Jayden Maiava 896 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT #7 QB
TE Mark Bowman 12 rec · 128 yds · 2 TD #10 TE
P Lachlan Carrigan 3 punts · 46.7 yd avg #8 P

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Ohio State BuckeyesB1G +34.9 +15.1 +19.7 #2
USC TrojansB1G +26.1 +16.9 +9.2 #14

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Ohio State offense vs USC defense+6.0 pts
USC offense vs Ohio State defense-2.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,976 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.