BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Michigan State

B1G · 2-0 · power +15.3 · #54
Our numberUCLA -12.5 no book has priced this game

UCLA

B1G · 2-0 · power +19.9 · #39
Our side
MoneylineUCLA to win ours 65%
Projected score 18–31 MSU – UCLA
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Rose Bowl · Pasadena, CA B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UCLA lead 4–3 · 7 meetings since 1953
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Michigan State Spartans 90 ranks
Michigan State Spartans #161 rush offense UCLA Bruins #251 run defense
Pass game edge Michigan State Spartans 88 ranks
Michigan State Spartans #136 pass offense UCLA Bruins #224 pass defense
Run game edge UCLA Bruins 103 ranks
UCLA Bruins #71 rush offense Michigan State Spartans #174 run defense
Pass game edge Michigan State Spartans 75 ranks
UCLA Bruins #245 pass offense Michigan State Spartans #170 pass defense
Michigan State Spartans Balanced · 51% run Avg pace UCLA Bruins Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Jonathan Smith · 43-50 Tim Skipper · 9-13

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Michigan State Spartans
DL Eli Coenen 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #21 DL
RB Cam Edwards 250 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec #18 RB
DL Kenny Soares Jr. 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #69 DL
K Liam Boyd 5 FG · 6 XP · 21 pts #17 K
UCLA Bruins
RB Wayne Knight 168 rush yds · 6 TD · 2 rec #7 RB
DB Ta'Shawn James 13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #16 DB
LB Sammy Omosigho 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #26 LB
LB Jalen Woods 20 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #31 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Michigan State SpartansB1G +15.3 +6.0 +9.3 #54
UCLA BruinsB1G +19.9 +9.4 +10.5 #39

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Michigan State offense vs UCLA defense-4.4 pts
UCLA offense vs Michigan State defense+0.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,902 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.