Our side
MoneylineOSU to win
ours 84%
Projected score
15–34
ILL – OSU
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD
Ohio Stadium · Columbus, OH
B1G game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Ohio State lead
70–30–4
· 104 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Ohio State Buckeyes
120 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #124 rush offense
Ohio State Buckeyes #4 run defense
Pass game
even
29 ranks apart
Illinois Fighting Illini #38 pass offense
Ohio State Buckeyes #9 pass defense
Run game
edge Illinois Fighting Illini
57 ranks
Ohio State Buckeyes #117 rush offense
Illinois Fighting Illini #60 run defense
Pass game
edge Ohio State Buckeyes
172 ranks
Ohio State Buckeyes #7 pass offense
Illinois Fighting Illini #179 pass defense
Illinois Fighting Illini
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ohio State Buckeyes
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Bret Bielema · 56-45 · offense-minded
Ryan Day · 82-12
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Illinois Fighting Illini
WR
Collin Dixon
17 rec · 236 yds · 5 TD
#5 WR
QB
Katin Houser
453 pass yds · 6 TD · 1 INT
#8 QB
LB
Ismael Kante
10 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#45 LB
LB
Will Holmes
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#102 LB
Ohio State Buckeyes
WR
Jeremiah Smith
16 rec · 315 yds · 3 TD
#7 WR
QB
Julian Sayin
598 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
#32 QB
RB
Bo Jackson
157 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec
#73 RB
DB
Earl Little Jr.
15 tkl · 1 PD
#175 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Illinois offense vs Ohio State defense-9.9 pts
Ohio State offense vs Illinois defense+6.7 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.