← Matchups

Illinois

B1G · 1-1 · power +18.3 · #44
Our numberOSU -18.9 no book has priced this game

Ohio State

B1G · 1-1 · power +34.9 · #2
Our side
MoneylineOSU to win ours 84%
Projected score 15–34 ILL – OSU
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD Ohio Stadium · Columbus, OH B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Ohio State lead 70–30–4 · 104 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Ohio State Buckeyes 120 ranks
Illinois Fighting Illini #124 rush offense Ohio State Buckeyes #4 run defense
Pass game even 29 ranks apart
Illinois Fighting Illini #38 pass offense Ohio State Buckeyes #9 pass defense
Run game edge Illinois Fighting Illini 57 ranks
Ohio State Buckeyes #117 rush offense Illinois Fighting Illini #60 run defense
Pass game edge Ohio State Buckeyes 172 ranks
Ohio State Buckeyes #7 pass offense Illinois Fighting Illini #179 pass defense
Illinois Fighting Illini Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Ohio State Buckeyes Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Bret Bielema · 56-45 · offense-minded Ryan Day · 82-12

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Illinois Fighting Illini
WR Collin Dixon 17 rec · 236 yds · 5 TD #5 WR
QB Katin Houser 453 pass yds · 6 TD · 1 INT #8 QB
LB Ismael Kante 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #45 LB
LB Will Holmes 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #102 LB
Ohio State Buckeyes
WR Jeremiah Smith 16 rec · 315 yds · 3 TD #7 WR
QB Julian Sayin 598 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT #32 QB
RB Bo Jackson 157 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec #73 RB
DB Earl Little Jr. 15 tkl · 1 PD #175 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Illinois Fighting IlliniB1G +18.3 +9.8 +8.5 #44
Ohio State BuckeyesB1G +34.9 +15.1 +19.7 #2

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Illinois offense vs Ohio State defense-9.9 pts
Ohio State offense vs Illinois defense+6.7 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.