← Matchups

SMU

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +26.8 · #13

Our numberSMU -25.1 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Stanford

ACC · 1-1 (0-1 ACC) · power +4.0 · #132

Our side

MoneylineSMU to win ours 10%

Projected score 39–14 SMU – STAN

2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD Stanford Stadium · Stanford, CA ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series SMU lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 1935

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Stanford Cardinal ~~98 ranks~~

SMU Mustangs #115 rush offense Stanford Cardinal #17 run defense

Pass game edge SMU Mustangs ~~166 ranks~~

SMU Mustangs #46 pass offense Stanford Cardinal #212 pass defense

Run game edge SMU Mustangs ~~244 ranks~~

Stanford Cardinal #254 rush offense SMU Mustangs #10 run defense

Pass game edge SMU Mustangs ~~137 ranks~~

Stanford Cardinal #179 pass offense SMU Mustangs #42 pass defense

SMU Mustangs Balanced · 47% run Avg pace Stanford Cardinal Balanced · 53% run Ball-control

Rhett Lashlee · 38-16 Frank Reich · 4-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

SMU Mustangs

QB Kevin Jennings 767 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT #2 QB

DB Jimmy Wyrick 11 tkl · 1 PD #77 DB

TE Randy Pittman Jr. 6 rec · 77 yds · 2 TD #18 TE

WR Yannick Smith 6 rec · 151 yds · 2 TD #91 WR

Stanford Cardinal

LB Matt Rose 21 tkl · 1.5 TFL #51 LB

TE Benji Blackburn 12 rec · 101 yds #27 TE

RB Micah Ford 126 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #61 RB

DB Charlie Eckhardt 11 tkl · 1 INT #226 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
SMU Mustangs~~ACC~~	+26.8	+13.9	+12.9	#13
Stanford Cardinal~~ACC~~	+4.0	+1.4	+2.5	#132

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

SMU offense vs Stanford defense+11.3 pts

Stanford offense vs SMU defense-11.5 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,464 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.