← Matchups

Pittsburgh

ACC · 2-0 · power +20.6 · #34
Our numberPITT -17.3 no book has priced this game

California

ACC · 1-1 (1-0 ACC) · power +6.6 · #107
Our side
MoneylinePITT to win ours 23%
Projected score 36–19 PITT – CAL
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD California Memorial Stadium · Berkeley, CA ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Pittsburgh lead 4–2 · 6 meetings since 1955
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Pittsburgh Panthers 86 ranks
Pittsburgh Panthers #148 rush offense California Golden Bears #234 run defense
Pass game even 27 ranks apart
Pittsburgh Panthers #70 pass offense California Golden Bears #43 pass defense
Run game edge Pittsburgh Panthers 236 ranks
California Golden Bears #248 rush offense Pittsburgh Panthers #12 run defense
Pass game edge Pittsburgh Panthers 49 ranks
California Golden Bears #150 pass offense Pittsburgh Panthers #101 pass defense
Pittsburgh Panthers Balanced · 47% run Ball-control California Golden Bears Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Pat Narduzzi · 80-61 Nick Rolovich · 34-34

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Pittsburgh Panthers
QB Mason Heintschel 665 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #23 QB
DL Isaiah Neal 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #160 DL
WR Cataurus Hicks 8 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD #117 WR
RB Damon Ferguson Jr. 81 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec #94 RB
California Golden Bears
DB Kingston Lopa 11 tkl · 4 INT #2 DB
DB Daniel Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #56 DB
RB Adam Mohammed 194 rush yds · 1 TD · 12 rec #28 RB
TE Mason Mini 6 rec · 96 yds · 1 TD #28 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Pittsburgh PanthersACC +20.6 +10.2 +10.4 #34
California Golden BearsACC +6.6 +3.4 +3.2 #107

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Pittsburgh offense vs California defense+7.0 pts
California offense vs Pittsburgh defense-7.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,248 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.