Our side
MoneylineUNC to win
ours 53%
Projected score
22–26
NCSU – UNC
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD
Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
North Carolina lead
60–41–5
· 106 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge NC State Wolfpack
139 ranks
NC State Wolfpack #32 rush offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #171 run defense
Pass game
even
42 ranks apart
NC State Wolfpack #56 pass offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #98 pass defense
Run game
edge NC State Wolfpack
110 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #236 rush offense
NC State Wolfpack #126 run defense
Pass game
even
22 ranks apart
North Carolina Tar Heels #161 pass offense
NC State Wolfpack #139 pass defense
NC State Wolfpack
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
North Carolina Tar Heels
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Dave Doeren · 84-56 · offense-minded
Bill Belichick · 4-8
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
NC State Wolfpack
LB
Popo Aguirre
21 tkl
#147 LB
TE
Preston Douglas
5 rec · 71 yds · 1 TD
#52 TE
RB
Jayden Scott
148 rush yds · 2 TD
#149 RB
DB
Ronnie Royal III
9 tkl · 1 PD
#499 DB
North Carolina Tar Heels
DL
Xavier Lewis
12 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 6.5 TFL
#1 DL
DL
Jaylen Harvey
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#59 DL
TE
Jelani Thurman
8 rec · 165 yds · 1 TD
#15 TE
DB
Greg Smith
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#255 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
NC State offense vs North Carolina defense-5.8 pts
North Carolina offense vs NC State defense-6.5 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.