← Matchups

Virginia

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +22.3 · #23
Our numberUVA -7.5 no book has priced this game

Wake Forest

ACC · 2-0 · power +16.4 · #50
Our side
MoneylineUVA to win ours 40%
Projected score 30–23 UVA – WAKE
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Winston-Salem, NC ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Virginia lead 34–18 · 52 meetings since 1911
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 27 ranks apart
Virginia Cavaliers #46 rush offense Wake Forest Demon Deacons #19 run defense
Pass game edge Wake Forest Demon Deacons 97 ranks
Virginia Cavaliers #128 pass offense Wake Forest Demon Deacons #31 pass defense
Run game edge Virginia Cavaliers 45 ranks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons #83 rush offense Virginia Cavaliers #38 run defense
Pass game edge Virginia Cavaliers 104 ranks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons #139 pass offense Virginia Cavaliers #35 pass defense
Virginia Cavaliers Balanced · 53% run Avg pace Wake Forest Demon Deacons Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Tony Elliott · 22-26 · defense-minded Jake Dickert · 32-24 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Virginia Cavaliers
DL Fisher Camac 6 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #140 DL
DB Jacobie Henderson 12 tkl · 3 PD #147 DB
DB Brandyn Hillman 6 tkl · 3 INT #152 DB
K Will Bettridge 3 FG · 11 XP · 20 pts #36 K
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
QB Gio Lopez 575 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #4 QB
K Connor Calvert 6 FG · 6 XP · 24 pts #10 K
WR Carlos Hernandez 11 rec · 253 yds · 1 TD #49 WR
LB Vincent Firenze 20 tkl · 2.0 TFL #49 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Virginia CavaliersACC +22.3 +8.6 +13.7 #23
Wake Forest Demon DeaconsACC +16.4 +8.4 +8.0 #50

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Virginia offense vs Wake Forest defense+0.6 pts
Wake Forest offense vs Virginia defense-5.4 pts
Rest · context onlyHome team on 6 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.