Our side
MoneylineMIA to win
ours 20%
Projected score
33–13
MIA – UNC
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD
Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
North Carolina lead
16–11
· 27 meetings since 1946
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Miami Hurricanes
57 ranks
Miami Hurricanes #114 rush offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #171 run defense
Pass game
edge Miami Hurricanes
59 ranks
Miami Hurricanes #39 pass offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #98 pass defense
Run game
edge Miami Hurricanes
208 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #236 rush offense
Miami Hurricanes #28 run defense
Pass game
edge Miami Hurricanes
131 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #161 pass offense
Miami Hurricanes #30 pass defense
Miami Hurricanes
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
North Carolina Tar Heels
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Mario Cristobal · 70-31
Bill Belichick · 4-8
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Miami Hurricanes
QB
Darian Mensah
653 pass yds · 8 TD · 0 INT
#3 QB
WR
Malachi Toney
16 rec · 330 yds · 4 TD
#8 WR
DL
Marquise Lightfoot
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#264 DL
DL
Armondo Blount
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#308 DL
North Carolina Tar Heels
DL
Xavier Lewis
12 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 6.5 TFL
#1 DL
DL
Jaylen Harvey
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#59 DL
TE
Jelani Thurman
8 rec · 165 yds · 1 TD
#15 TE
DB
Greg Smith
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#255 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Miami offense vs North Carolina defense+1.2 pts
North Carolina offense vs Miami defense-14.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 691 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.