← Matchups

California

ACC · 1-1 (1-0 ACC) · power +6.6 · #107

Our numberNCSU -12.8 ~~no book has priced this game~~

NC State

ACC · 1-1 (0-1 ACC) · power +13.8 · #62

Our side

MoneylineNCSU to win ours 71%

Projected score 20–33 CAL – NCSU

2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh, NC ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series NC State lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2024

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge NC State Wolfpack ~~122 ranks~~

California Golden Bears #248 rush offense NC State Wolfpack #126 run defense

Pass game even ~~11 ranks apart~~

California Golden Bears #150 pass offense NC State Wolfpack #139 pass defense

Run game edge NC State Wolfpack ~~202 ranks~~

NC State Wolfpack #32 rush offense California Golden Bears #234 run defense

Pass game even ~~13 ranks apart~~

NC State Wolfpack #56 pass offense California Golden Bears #43 pass defense

California Golden Bears Balanced · 44% run Avg pace NC State Wolfpack Balanced · 51% run Ball-control

Nick Rolovich · 34-34 Dave Doeren · 84-56 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

California Golden Bears

DB Kingston Lopa 11 tkl · 4 INT #2 DB

DB Daniel Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #56 DB

RB Adam Mohammed 194 rush yds · 1 TD · 12 rec #28 RB

TE Mason Mini 6 rec · 96 yds · 1 TD #28 TE

NC State Wolfpack

LB Popo Aguirre 21 tkl #147 LB

TE Preston Douglas 5 rec · 71 yds · 1 TD #52 TE

RB Jayden Scott 148 rush yds · 2 TD #149 RB

DB Ronnie Royal III 9 tkl · 1 PD #499 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
California Golden Bears~~ACC~~	+6.6	+3.4	+3.2	#107
NC State Wolfpack~~ACC~~	+13.8	+9.2	+4.6	#62

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

California offense vs NC State defense-1.2 pts

NC State offense vs California defense+6.0 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,390 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.