← Matchups

Pittsburgh

ACC · 2-0 · power +20.6 · #34
Our numberMIA -13.5 no book has priced this game

Miami

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +29.0 · #8
Our side
MoneylineMIA to win ours 74%
Projected score 19–33 PITT – MIA
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Miami lead 30–12–1 · 43 meetings since 1950
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Miami Hurricanes 120 ranks
Pittsburgh Panthers #148 rush offense Miami Hurricanes #28 run defense
Pass game even 40 ranks apart
Pittsburgh Panthers #70 pass offense Miami Hurricanes #30 pass defense
Run game edge Pittsburgh Panthers 102 ranks
Miami Hurricanes #114 rush offense Pittsburgh Panthers #12 run defense
Pass game edge Miami Hurricanes 62 ranks
Miami Hurricanes #39 pass offense Pittsburgh Panthers #101 pass defense
Pittsburgh Panthers Balanced · 47% run Ball-control Miami Hurricanes Balanced · 55% run Ball-control
Pat Narduzzi · 80-61 Mario Cristobal · 70-31

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Pittsburgh Panthers
QB Mason Heintschel 665 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #23 QB
DL Isaiah Neal 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #160 DL
WR Cataurus Hicks 8 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD #117 WR
RB Damon Ferguson Jr. 81 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec #94 RB
Miami Hurricanes
QB Darian Mensah 653 pass yds · 8 TD · 0 INT #3 QB
WR Malachi Toney 16 rec · 330 yds · 4 TD #8 WR
DL Marquise Lightfoot 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #264 DL
DL Armondo Blount 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #308 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Pittsburgh PanthersACC +20.6 +10.2 +10.4 #34
Miami HurricanesACC +29.0 +16.2 +12.8 #8

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Pittsburgh offense vs Miami defense-2.7 pts
Miami offense vs Pittsburgh defense+5.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,001 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.