← Matchups

NC State

ACC · 1-1 (0-1 ACC) · power +13.8 · #62
Our numberNCSU -7.7 no book has priced this game

Stanford

ACC · 1-1 (0-1 ACC) · power +4.0 · #132
Our side
MoneylineNCSU to win ours 31%
Projected score 30–22 NCSU – STAN
2026-10-23 · 10:30 PM Stanford Stadium · Stanford, CA ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series NC State lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2024
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 15 ranks apart
NC State Wolfpack #32 rush offense Stanford Cardinal #17 run defense
Pass game edge NC State Wolfpack 156 ranks
NC State Wolfpack #56 pass offense Stanford Cardinal #212 pass defense
Run game edge NC State Wolfpack 128 ranks
Stanford Cardinal #254 rush offense NC State Wolfpack #126 run defense
Pass game even 40 ranks apart
Stanford Cardinal #179 pass offense NC State Wolfpack #139 pass defense
NC State Wolfpack Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Stanford Cardinal Balanced · 53% run Ball-control
Dave Doeren · 84-56 · offense-minded Frank Reich · 4-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
NC State Wolfpack
LB Popo Aguirre 21 tkl #147 LB
TE Preston Douglas 5 rec · 71 yds · 1 TD #52 TE
RB Jayden Scott 148 rush yds · 2 TD #149 RB
DB Ronnie Royal III 9 tkl · 1 PD #499 DB
Stanford Cardinal
LB Matt Rose 21 tkl · 1.5 TFL #51 LB
TE Benji Blackburn 12 rec · 101 yds #27 TE
RB Micah Ford 126 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #61 RB
DB Charlie Eckhardt 11 tkl · 1 INT #226 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
NC State WolfpackACC +13.8 +9.2 +4.6 #62
Stanford CardinalACC +4.0 +1.4 +2.5 #132

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
NC State offense vs Stanford defense+6.7 pts
Stanford offense vs NC State defense-3.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,390 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.