Our side
MoneylineUVA to win
ours 56%
Projected score
24–28
DUKE – UVA
2026-10-23 · 7:00 PM
Scott Stadium · Charlottesville, VA
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Virginia lead
40–34
· 74 meetings since 1890
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Virginia Cavaliers
100 ranks
Duke Blue Devils #138 rush offense
Virginia Cavaliers #38 run defense
Pass game
even
19 ranks apart
Duke Blue Devils #54 pass offense
Virginia Cavaliers #35 pass defense
Run game
edge Virginia Cavaliers
109 ranks
Virginia Cavaliers #46 rush offense
Duke Blue Devils #155 run defense
Pass game
edge Virginia Cavaliers
97 ranks
Virginia Cavaliers #128 pass offense
Duke Blue Devils #225 pass defense
Duke Blue Devils
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Virginia Cavaliers
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Manny Diaz · 39-24 · offense-minded
Tony Elliott · 22-26 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Duke Blue Devils
RB
Nate Sheppard
374 rush yds · 3 TD · 8 rec
#1 RB
DL
Bryce Davis
11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#57 DL
WR
Jonah Burton
7 rec · 114 yds · 1 TD
#190 WR
TE
Jeremiah Hasley
5 rec · 89 yds
#67 TE
Virginia Cavaliers
DL
Fisher Camac
6 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#140 DL
DB
Jacobie Henderson
12 tkl · 3 PD
#147 DB
DB
Brandyn Hillman
6 tkl · 3 INT
#152 DB
K
Will Bettridge
3 FG · 11 XP · 20 pts
#36 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Duke offense vs Virginia defense-2.5 pts
Virginia offense vs Duke defense-1.7 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.