Duke Blue Devils @ Virginia Cavaliers
2026-10-23 · 7:00 PM
· Scott Stadium · Charlottesville, VA
Virginia -3.8
Projected spread
62.3
Projected total
29–33
Proj score (away–home)
58%
Virginia win prob
Series
Virginia lead
40–34
· 74 meetings since 1890
Duke Blue Devils
Manny Diaz · 30-19 · offense-minded
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Virginia Cavaliers — defense
Virginia Cavaliers — offense
Virginia Cavaliers
Tony Elliott · 11-23 · defense-minded
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense), not individual players — per-player ratings wait on the 2026 rosters. Identity, tempo, dual-threat and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.
Power breakdown
| Team | Div | Power | Off | Def (higher = better) | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils ACC | FBS | +8.5 | +7.8 | +0.7 | #45 |
| Virginia Cavaliers ACC | FBS | +9.9 | +4.1 | +5.8 | #31 |
Duke offense vs. Virginia defense
+2.0 pts
Virginia offense vs. Duke defense
+3.4 pts
Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), FBS and FCS on one scale. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites). An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone. Player-level matchups, team strengths/weaknesses, and the Vegas-line comparison arrive as those phases land.