Our side
MoneylineDUKE to win
ours 74%
Projected score
22–26
UNC – DUKE
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD
Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham, NC
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
North Carolina lead
63–38–4
· 105 meetings since 1922
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Duke Blue Devils
81 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #236 rush offense
Duke Blue Devils #155 run defense
Pass game
edge North Carolina Tar Heels
64 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #161 pass offense
Duke Blue Devils #225 pass defense
Run game
even
33 ranks apart
Duke Blue Devils #138 rush offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #171 run defense
Pass game
even
44 ranks apart
Duke Blue Devils #54 pass offense
North Carolina Tar Heels #98 pass defense
North Carolina Tar Heels
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Duke Blue Devils
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Bill Belichick · 4-8
Manny Diaz · 39-24 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Tar Heels
DL
Xavier Lewis
12 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 6.5 TFL
#1 DL
DL
Jaylen Harvey
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#59 DL
TE
Jelani Thurman
8 rec · 165 yds · 1 TD
#15 TE
DB
Greg Smith
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#255 DB
Duke Blue Devils
RB
Nate Sheppard
374 rush yds · 3 TD · 8 rec
#1 RB
DL
Bryce Davis
11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#57 DL
WR
Jonah Burton
7 rec · 114 yds · 1 TD
#190 WR
TE
Jeremiah Hasley
5 rec · 89 yds
#67 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Carolina offense vs Duke defense-12.3 pts
Duke offense vs North Carolina defense-3.8 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.