← Matchups

Florida State

ACC · 1-1 (0-1 ACC) · power +16.0 · #52
Our numberMIA -17.7 no book has priced this game

Miami

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +29.0 · #8
Our side
MoneylineMIA to win ours 82%
Projected score 16–33 FSU – MIA
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Miami lead 37–33 · 70 meetings since 1951
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 7 ranks apart
Florida State Seminoles #21 rush offense Miami Hurricanes #28 run defense
Pass game even 2 ranks apart
Florida State Seminoles #32 pass offense Miami Hurricanes #30 pass defense
Run game even 7 ranks apart
Miami Hurricanes #114 rush offense Florida State Seminoles #107 run defense
Pass game even 30 ranks apart
Miami Hurricanes #39 pass offense Florida State Seminoles #69 pass defense
Florida State Seminoles Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg Miami Hurricanes Balanced · 55% run Ball-control
Mike Norvell · 76-50 Mario Cristobal · 70-31

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida State Seminoles
DB Ashlynd Barker 15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #32 DB
RB Ousmane Kromah 231 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #31 RB
RB Samuel Singleton Jr. 66 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec #36 RB
LB Chris Jones 15 tkl · 1.0 TFL #77 LB
Miami Hurricanes
QB Darian Mensah 653 pass yds · 8 TD · 0 INT #3 QB
WR Malachi Toney 16 rec · 330 yds · 4 TD #8 WR
DL Marquise Lightfoot 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #264 DL
DL Armondo Blount 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #308 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida State SeminolesACC +16.0 +7.0 +9.0 #52
Miami HurricanesACC +29.0 +16.2 +12.8 #8

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida State offense vs Miami defense-5.8 pts
Miami offense vs Florida State defense+7.2 pts
Rest · context onlyHome team on 6 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.