Our side
MoneylineSMU to win
ours 89%
Projected score
14–39
MOST – SMU
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
SMU lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge SMU Mustangs
177 ranks
Missouri State Bears #187 rush offense
SMU Mustangs #10 run defense
Pass game
edge SMU Mustangs
48 ranks
Missouri State Bears #90 pass offense
SMU Mustangs #42 pass defense
Run game
edge SMU Mustangs
77 ranks
SMU Mustangs #115 rush offense
Missouri State Bears #192 run defense
Pass game
edge SMU Mustangs
154 ranks
SMU Mustangs #46 pass offense
Missouri State Bears #200 pass defense
Missouri State Bears
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
SMU Mustangs
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
Ryan Beard · 7-5 · offense-minded
Rhett Lashlee · 38-16
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Missouri State Bears
LB
Jared Lloyd
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#39 LB
DB
Joel Boamah
8 tkl · 3 PD
#197 DB
WR
Isaiah Myers
5 rec · 155 yds · 1 TD
#141 WR
DB
Anthony Mattison
6 tkl · 1 PD
#367 DB
SMU Mustangs
QB
Kevin Jennings
767 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT
#2 QB
DB
Jimmy Wyrick
11 tkl · 1 PD
#77 DB
TE
Randy Pittman Jr.
6 rec · 77 yds · 2 TD
#18 TE
WR
Yannick Smith
6 rec · 151 yds · 2 TD
#91 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Missouri State offense vs SMU defense-9.0 pts
SMU offense vs Missouri State defense+11.1 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.