← Matchups

Central Michigan

MAC · 1-1 · power -3.5 · #222
Our numberMIA -36.5 no book has priced this game

Miami

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +29.0 · #8
Our side
MoneylineMIA to win ours 97%
Projected score 6–42 CMU – MIA
2026-09-26 · 6:30 PM Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Miami lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2019
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Miami Hurricanes 126 ranks
Central Michigan Chippewas #154 rush offense Miami Hurricanes #28 run defense
Pass game even 18 ranks apart
Central Michigan Chippewas #12 pass offense Miami Hurricanes #30 pass defense
Run game even 32 ranks apart
Miami Hurricanes #114 rush offense Central Michigan Chippewas #82 run defense
Pass game even 32 ranks apart
Miami Hurricanes #39 pass offense Central Michigan Chippewas #71 pass defense
Central Michigan Chippewas Run-heavy · 68% run Ball-control Miami Hurricanes Balanced · 55% run Ball-control
Matt Drinkall · 7-6 Mario Cristobal · 70-31

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Central Michigan Chippewas
DB Darrell Bryant Jr. 13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #158 DB
DL Hunter Zirkle 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #183 DL
DL Korver Demma 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #219 DL
LB Mayson Hitchens 15 tkl #178 LB
Miami Hurricanes
QB Darian Mensah 653 pass yds · 8 TD · 0 INT #3 QB
WR Malachi Toney 16 rec · 330 yds · 4 TD #8 WR
DL Marquise Lightfoot 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #264 DL
DL Armondo Blount 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #308 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Central Michigan ChippewasMAC -3.5 -8.6 +5.1 #222
Miami HurricanesACC +29.0 +16.2 +12.8 #8

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Central Michigan offense vs Miami defense-21.4 pts
Miami offense vs Central Michigan defense+11.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,244 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.