Our side
MoneylineMSST to win
ours 52%
Projected score
24–28
AUB – MSST
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD
Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS
SEC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Auburn lead
63–31–3
· 97 meetings since 1905
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Auburn Tigers
140 ranks
Auburn Tigers #23 rush offense
Mississippi State Bulldogs #163 run defense
Pass game
edge Mississippi State Bulldogs
61 ranks
Auburn Tigers #193 pass offense
Mississippi State Bulldogs #132 pass defense
Run game
edge Auburn Tigers
97 ranks
Mississippi State Bulldogs #102 rush offense
Auburn Tigers #5 run defense
Pass game
even
22 ranks apart
Mississippi State Bulldogs #149 pass offense
Auburn Tigers #127 pass defense
Auburn Tigers
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Balanced · 57% run
Avg pace
Hugh Freeze · 64-44
Jeff Lebby · 7-18
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Auburn Tigers
LB
Elijah Melendez
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#4 LB
DB
Andre Jordan Jr.
5 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#14 DB
DL
Cody Sigler
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#149 DL
DB
Eric Winters
14 tkl
#194 DB
Mississippi State Bulldogs
QB
Kamario Taylor
581 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
#5 QB
WR
Anthony Evans III
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#20 WR
K
Kyle Ferrie
3 FG · 13 XP · 22 pts
#19 K
RB
Fluff Bothwell
165 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#66 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Auburn offense vs Mississippi State defense+0.9 pts
Mississippi State offense vs Auburn defense-0.1 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.