Our side
MoneylineSC to win
ours 36%
Projected score
33–20
SC – ARK
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium · Fayetteville, AR
SEC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arkansas lead
14–10
· 24 meetings since 1992
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge South Carolina Gamecocks
96 ranks
South Carolina Gamecocks #140 rush offense
Arkansas Razorbacks #236 run defense
Pass game
edge South Carolina Gamecocks
107 ranks
South Carolina Gamecocks #130 pass offense
Arkansas Razorbacks #237 pass defense
Run game
even
7 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #13 rush offense
South Carolina Gamecocks #6 run defense
Pass game
even
42 ranks apart
Arkansas Razorbacks #74 pass offense
South Carolina Gamecocks #116 pass defense
South Carolina Gamecocks
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Arkansas Razorbacks
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Shane Beamer · 33-30 · defense-minded
Sam Pittman · 32-34 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
South Carolina Gamecocks
RB
Matt Fuller
199 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#93 RB
DL
Anthony Addison
3 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#233 DL
WR
Donovan Murph
4 rec · 92 yds · 2 TD
#164 WR
DL
Tomiwa Durojaiye
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#288 DL
Arkansas Razorbacks
DB
Khmori House
8 tkl
#173 DB
WR
Chris Marshall
12 rec · 142 yds
#196 WR
DB
Christian Harrison
9 tkl · 1 INT
#325 DB
DB
Joker Johnson
10 tkl · 1 PD
#465 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
South Carolina offense vs Arkansas defense+1.8 pts
Arkansas offense vs South Carolina defense-5.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 758 mi
Altitude · context only345 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.