← Matchups

Utah

B12 · 2-0 · power +30.1 · #6
Our numberUTAH -12.4 no book has priced this game

TCU

B12 · 1-1 · power +17.5 · #46
Our side
MoneylineUTAH to win ours 26%
Projected score 32–20 UTAH – TCU
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth, TX B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Utah lead 5–4 · 9 meetings since 1996
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Utah Utes 105 ranks
Utah Utes #3 rush offense TCU Horned Frogs #108 run defense
Pass game edge Utah Utes 120 ranks
Utah Utes #40 pass offense TCU Horned Frogs #160 pass defense
Run game even 15 ranks apart
TCU Horned Frogs #153 rush offense Utah Utes #138 run defense
Pass game even 29 ranks apart
TCU Horned Frogs #36 pass offense Utah Utes #7 pass defense
Utah Utes Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg TCU Horned Frogs Balanced · 49% run Avg pace
Morgan Scalley · 1-0 Sonny Dykes · 79-46

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Utah Utes
RB Wayshawn Parker 124 rush yds · 3 TD · 8 rec #8 RB
TE Noah Bennee 5 rec · 148 yds · 2 TD #8 TE
QB Devon Dampier 437 pass yds · 5 TD · 1 INT #9 QB
DL Jireh Moe 8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #105 DL
TCU Horned Frogs
TE Kari Ashley 10 rec · 136 yds · 2 TD #6 TE
DB Teon Parks 1 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #65 DB
DL Ansel Din-Mbuh 6 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #98 DL
RB Jeremy Payne 221 rush yds · 6 rec #81 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Utah UtesB12 +30.1 +18.4 +11.7 #6
TCU Horned FrogsB12 +17.5 +9.7 +7.9 #46

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Utah offense vs TCU defense+10.6 pts
TCU offense vs Utah defense-2.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 974 mi
Altitude · context only1,226 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.