Our side
MoneylineASU to win
ours 70%
Projected score
20–33
OKST – ASU
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD
Mountain America Stadium · Tempe, AZ
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arizona State and Oklahoma State split 6 (3–3)
· 6 meetings since 1984
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Arizona State Sun Devils
181 ranks
Oklahoma State Cowboys #257 rush offense
Arizona State Sun Devils #76 run defense
Pass game
edge Arizona State Sun Devils
162 ranks
Oklahoma State Cowboys #244 pass offense
Arizona State Sun Devils #82 pass defense
Run game
edge Arizona State Sun Devils
125 ranks
Arizona State Sun Devils #96 rush offense
Oklahoma State Cowboys #221 run defense
Pass game
edge Arizona State Sun Devils
110 ranks
Arizona State Sun Devils #134 pass offense
Oklahoma State Cowboys #244 pass defense
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Arizona State Sun Devils
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Mike Gundy · 86-46
Kenny Dillingham · 22-17 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Oklahoma State Cowboys
WR
Wyatt Young
13 rec · 205 yds · 1 TD
#44 WR
RB
Caleb Hawkins
189 rush yds · 1 TD · 8 rec
#56 RB
LB
Ethan Wesloski
16 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#101 LB
QB
Drew Mestemaker
558 pass yds · 3 TD · 4 INT
#38 QB
Arizona State Sun Devils
WR
Reed Harris
15 rec · 326 yds · 4 TD
#4 WR
QB
Cutter Boley
641 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT
#22 QB
WR
Omarion Miller
17 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD
#86 WR
DB
Montana Warren
10 tkl
#343 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Oklahoma State offense vs Arizona State defense-2.2 pts
Arizona State offense vs Oklahoma State defense+4.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 863 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.